On the 7th of April, I asked if maybe such
forecasts using big data were the way to go generally, seeing as they were bang
on the money with regards to the presidential elections. Today, we have even
more Google trend data to put to the test against the forthcoming gubernatorial
elections.
The first, and most obvious conclusion we
can draw even before sharing the new data is that Nigerians generally aren’t as
interested in the governance of their respective states as they are with who
the president is, an anomaly of sorts considering that governance at the state
level is more likely to directly affect your day-to-day life than the president
is. It might also be a pointer to the fact that everyone realises that the
Nigerian system is built around the centre and as a result, pays all the
attention there.
In any case, it’s looking like the turnout
for the gubernatorial elections won’t be anywhere near the turnout we witnessed
for the presidential elections. There was only enough search volume to get
details for three states: Lagos, Oyo and Rivers.
Lagos:
From the above, Google Trends shows the amount of search traffic on the 2 main
candidates in Lagos; Jimi Agbaje and Akinwunmi Ambode, using the two most
popular keywords for each candidate. Although Ambode is slightly ahead in terms
of search traffic, the interest for both parties is growing steadily pointing
towards a tight race.
Oyo:
The Oyo state chart compares 3 candidates;
Alao-Akala, Abiola Ajimobi (current governor) and Teslim Folarin.
The chart shows more people are interested
in Ajimobi at the moment. Although searches for Folarin peaked in March, it has
since dropped. Searches for Alao-Akala peaked in December 2014. Probably
because that was when he was announced as the governorship flag-bearer of the
Labour Party.
Rivers:
The chart above compares 3 governorship
candidates of Rivers state; Tonye Princewill, Dakuku Peterside and Wike Nyesom.
Interests for Wike seem to the highest at the moment. Dakuku Peterside is also
generating some search interests. Princewill, the last candidate in this
analysis isn’t generating enough search volume to show up on the charts.
I definitely will be keeping an eye on the
results from those states to see if Google data calls them right.
Source: TechSuplex
